Ecologists from the Pennsylvania State University and University of Georgia predict that the spread of the deadly Ebola virus in Liberia could end in June of this year according to Science Daily.
However, the experts warned that this could only happen if current preventive practices in the region are maintained. The scientists based their claims using a model that tracks treatment methods, safe burial practices for Ebola victims and the capacity and response of local hospitals.
Using mathematical formulas, lead researcher John Drake of the University of Georgia's Odum School of Ecology used data collected from the World Health Organization and medical facilities in Liberia.
He and his team of researchers then used the information to create a forecast regarding the number of Ebola cases in the country. Based on their findings, if hospitals can increase their capacity or the number of beds to accommodate more patients, then the number of Ebola patients in Liberia can be trimmed down.
"We use the model to assess the likely progression of Ebola in Liberia," the researchers wrote in the study published by PLOS Biology, a peer-reviewed scientific journal of the Public Library of Science.
"The model assesses the feedback between new cases and hospital demand under a range of plausible intervention scenarios, particularly ramping-up of treatment facilities over time and increasing the number of individuals seeking hospital treatment through outreach and education," they added.
For instance, for the 2014 model, the worst case scenario for the country is to have 130,000 people infected with the virus. But if hospitals can increase their capacity to care for an additional total of 1,400 or 1,700 patients, then the number of cases could drop to 50,000, UGA Today reported.
This is equivalent to an 85 percent hospitalization rate. The researchers pointed out through the model that increasing a hospital's capability to care for more Ebola patients can significantly help health organizations contain the epidemic by June of 2015.
Drake emphasized that this can only be achieved as long as hospitals continue to improve its services and proper methods for handling deceased Ebola victims are maintained and strictly followed.
"That's a realistic possibility but not a foregone conclusion," Drake said in a statement about the June 2015 prediction. "What's needed is to maintain the current level of vigilance and keep pressing forward as hard as we can."
