The release of Pastor Ezra Jin this week does not signal a broader easing of pressure on Christians in China, according to a Foundation for Defense of Democracies researcher, who described the move as “a carefully calibrated political decision” rather than evidence of a change in Beijing’s religious policy.
The foundation said U.S. officials should evaluate China’s religious freedom record based on long-term patterns of state conduct rather than isolated prisoner releases made at the urging of President Donald Trump.
“China’s campaign against independent religious practice remains among the most systematic in the world,” Foundation for Defense of Democracies research analyst Mariam Wahba wrote in an analysis Wednesday.
“Protestant house churches continue to be shuttered, Catholic clergy loyal to the Vatican remain under surveillance or detention, and Sinicization — the state policy of forcing religion to conform to Chinese Communist Party (CCP) ideology — presses ahead unchanged.”
Wahba noted that Jin was among 30 church leaders arrested in October 2025 during one of the largest crackdowns on a single congregation in China in decades, adding that eight of those detained remain in custody.
China officially recognizes 44 million registered Christians, though Wahba said estimates that include underground house churches reach as high as 160 million.
In 2004, China’s State Council adopted the Regulations on Religious Affairs, which Wahba described as the party’s “primary legal instrument” for regulating faith and bringing religious activity under state oversight. She said that under President Xi Jinping, the limited liberalization associated with those rules was reversed in 2018.
“Under Xi’s rule, the CCP has expanded efforts to ensure that all religious activity serves the interests of the state,” she wrote.
Central to Beijing’s current approach is “sinicization,” a policy requiring religious groups to align with Communist Party ideology and national priorities. Wahba said the policy has led to state involvement in clergy appointments, religious instruction, worship sites and public messaging.
For Protestant churches, the policy has meant pressure to promote patriotic education and display symbols of state authority, while Catholic communities have faced expanded government efforts to control leadership and church governance.
Wahba also noted that Tibetan Buddhists and Uyghur Muslims face similar state supervision, combined with more direct political control, including genocide in the case of the Uyghurs.
Chinese authorities often view religious groups operating outside state-approved structures as potential challenges to government control.
The foundation said China continues to meet the standard for designation by the U.S. State Department as a Country of Particular Concern under the International Religious Freedom Act, a category reserved for governments responsible for severe religious freedom violations and potential sanctions.
According to Open Doors, which monitors Christian persecution worldwide, registered Protestant churches in China must operate under the Three-Self Patriotic Movement, while registered Catholic churches fall under the Chinese Catholic Patriotic Association. The ministry says both bodies are closely monitored by the state, which controls preaching, attendance and leadership, while barring minors under 18 from church participation.
Many Christians continue to gather in underground house churches, a choice that can expose congregations to raids, fines, arrests, imprisonment and confiscation of religious materials.
Open Doors says much of the current pressure stems from the 2018 revisions to China’s religious regulations, expanded surveillance and tighter internet rules, while conditions for Christians have changed little over the past year and restrictions on children’s involvement in church life are becoming an increasingly visible concern.
