Protestant voters are more likely to support Republican candidates in the upcoming midterm House elections, with white Evangelical Protestants showing the strongest preference for the GOP, according to a new survey from the Pew Research Center.
Pew released the findings Tuesday, drawing on responses from 5,062 U.S. adults, including 3,917 registered voters, surveyed between Sept. 28 and Oct. 4. The study examined voting preferences ahead of the midterm elections and assessed President Donald Trump’s job approval across religious groups.
Among registered voters nationwide, 44% said they intend to vote for the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, compared with 36% who favor the Republican candidate. Protestant voters, however, show a different pattern, with 49% favoring Republican House candidates and 32% supporting Democrats.
The Republican preference is especially pronounced among white Evangelical Protestants, 73% of whom intend to vote for GOP candidates, compared with 12% who favor Democrats. White non-Evangelical Protestants are more closely divided, with 45% supporting Republicans and 37% backing Democrats.
Black Protestants demonstrate a sharply different political preference, with 74% planning to support Democratic candidates and only 6% favoring Republicans. Catholic voters are more evenly split, with Democrats receiving 42% support and Republicans 39%.
Differences also emerge within the Catholic population. Half of white Catholic voters favor Republican House candidates, while 32% support Democrats. Among Hispanic Catholics, the trend is reversed, with 59% backing Democratic candidates and 19% supporting Republicans.
Voters without religious affiliations generally express stronger support for Democrats. Democratic candidates are favored by 81% of atheists, 75% of agnostics and 61% of religiously unaffiliated voters. Among those who describe their religion as nothing in particular, 48% intend to vote Democratic. Republican support among these groups stands at 9%, 13%, 17% and 22%, respectively.
The survey also found that white Evangelical Protestants remain the only religious subgroup in which a majority approve of Trump’s performance as president. Among white Evangelicals, 58% approve of his leadership and 40% disapprove. However, his approval within the group has declined considerably from 78% in January and February 2025. White Catholics have also become less supportive, with Trump's approval falling from 59% to 39% over the same period.
Across the broader Protestant population, 39% approve of Trump’s job performance, while 58% disapprove. White non-Evangelical Protestants report similar figures, with 38% approving and 60% disapproving. Opposition is particularly strong among black Protestants, 90% of whom disapprove of the president’s performance, compared with just 7% who approve.
Among Catholic adults overall, Trump receives a 30% approval rating, while 67% disapprove of his performance. His standing is comparatively stronger among white Catholics, with 39% approving and 59% disapproving. Hispanic Catholics express substantially greater dissatisfaction, with 78% disapproving of his job performance.
The midterm elections, scheduled for Nov. 3, 2026, will see voters decide all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships
