New federal survey data shows a notable decline in the percentage of younger American teenagers who identify as lesbian, gay or bisexual, prompting researchers and commentators to debate what may be driving the change.
An analysis of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s 2025 Youth Risk Behavior Survey found that the shift was especially pronounced among ninth-grade girls.
Jean Twenge, a psychology professor at San Diego State University who analyzed the CDC data, found that 17% of ninth-grade girls identified as lesbian or bisexual in 2025, compared with 30% in 2021. The percentage identifying specifically as bisexual dropped by half during the same period, falling from 26% to 13%.
The decline was smaller among students nearing the end of high school. LGB identification among 12th-graders decreased from 18% in 2023 to 16% in 2025, while the rate among ninth-graders declined more sharply, from 17% to 11%.
Similar patterns appeared when researchers looked at sexual behavior. Among students who reported being sexually active, ninth-grade girls showed the most significant decline in reporting at least one same-sex sexual partner.
Twenge said the findings could point to a broader generational or cultural change, although she cautioned that the reason for the decline remains unclear.
Some conservative commentators have linked the shift to recent changes in federal policy. Terry Schilling, president of the American Principles Project, pointed to spending cuts under the Trump administration, writing on X: “Amazing what happens when you cut the Department of Education and USAID.”
Twenge said she intends to explore several possible factors behind the shift, including the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, changes in the political environment and the influence of social media.
The findings also follow research suggesting that identification outside traditional gender categories may be declining among some members of Generation Z.
A 2025 Manhattan Institute analysis by Eric Kaufmann, a Canadian professor and conservative writer, reported a decline in transgender and queer identification among young Americans beginning around 2023.
The report, titled “The Decline of Trans and Queer Identity among Young Americans,” examined data from the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression’s annual survey of U.S. college students. More than 60,000 undergraduates participated in the 2025 survey.
Kaufmann found that 3.6% of respondents in 2025 identified as a gender other than male or female. That figure was down from 5.2% in 2024 and 6.8% in both 2022 and 2023.
