A new study from Lifeway Research finds that 94% of pastors say they believe their churches will remain active a decade from now, while 4% disagree and 2% say they are unsure.
The estimates are based on data from 35 denominations or faith groups, representing roughly 58% of all Protestant churches in the United States.
Among pastors who expect their churches to endure, fewer than four in five—78%—say they strongly agree their congregation has at least another decade ahead, indicating underlying concerns even among the hopeful.
Church size appears to play a role in outlook. Leaders of congregations with fewer than 50 people in attendance are the least confident, with 88% saying their church will still exist in 10 years and 8% expressing doubt—the highest level of skepticism among all size categories.
The study also highlights ongoing involvement in church planting efforts. More than one-third of U.S. Protestant churches report having helped start a new church, though the level of engagement varies widely.
Among those involved, 42% have assisted with training church planters, 38% have provided coaching, and 30% have participated in church planting assessments. Only 2% of all churches, however, have taken on direct financial responsibility as the primary sponsor of a new church within the past three years.
Within the Southern Baptist Convention, Lifeway Research found that congregations founded in the last 25 years were the only group to experience overall membership growth during the past five years.
Southern Baptist churches established since 2000 grew by 12%, while those founded between 1950 and 1999 saw an 11% decline. Congregations started between 1900 and 1949 declined by 13%, and churches founded before 1900 experienced an 11% drop in membership.
Nationwide, Lifeway Research estimates that approximately 3,800 new Protestant churches were planted in 2024, while about 4,000 closed.
Although closures again exceeded new starts, the gap narrowed significantly compared to previous years. In 2019, an estimated 1,500 more churches closed than opened, with 4,500 closures and 3,000 new churches recorded five years ago.
A decade earlier, the trend favored growth. In 2014, Lifeway Research reported 4,000 Protestant churches were planted, compared to 3,700 that closed.
Using the U.S. Religion Census 2020 estimate of approximately 293,000 Protestant congregations, the 4,000 closures in 2024 account for nearly 1.4% of all U.S. Protestant churches.
Within the Southern Baptist Convention specifically, Lifeway Research found that 1.4% of active congregations disbanded or closed between 2023 and 2024, while an additional 0.4% left the convention or were disaffiliated.
In total, 906 of the 49,380 active Southern Baptist congregations from the previous year were no longer affiliated with the convention in 2024. This included 715 churches that disbanded or closed and 188 that left or were disaffiliated.
While the number of Southern Baptist congregations has declined every year since peaking in 2017, the 715 closures recorded in 2024 represent the smallest annual loss.
